For the Record....

A reader, Stephen Wood, writes with a correction, after reading my January 12, 2004 New Yorker article on SUV safety. see: here

Wood writes:

     Unfortunately there are two very evident errors, both in the first paragraph of section 5. of "Big and Bad". The first is that although your estimate of 630 billion miles is right on, these are tire miles, not vehicle miles. If the tires were used until worn out, but not rotated in a five-tire rotation, then the vehicle miles would be just under 158 billion; if the spare was included in a five-tire rotation, then the vehicle miles would be 126 billion.   

     The second is that 0.0005% of 500,000 deaths is just under 3 deaths. I think you meant to say 0.05% of 500,000, or equivalently 0.0005 of 500,000. [1% of 500,000 is 5,000; 0.0542 of that latter figure (5,000) is 271.]

     Your arguments would still be strong with the correct numbers: last dramatic, but more robust.

Comments

[solomon muller]

IM A DIE HARD FAN OF YOU!
sorry to barge in ..im a prefinal year medschool student..iin christian medical college ludhiana india

im starting out on some research regarding suicides committed by farmers..

i would be on my way to heaven if you even as much give a few hints and clues..
thanking you..

AND YES I HAVE READ ALL YOUR BOOKS..

[Lethu.N]

In hiny South Africa you will not believe i'm still struggling to get myself a copy of Blink. Its crazy. I'm past ordering it from bookstores and the suspence is killing me since i had a sneak preview from a person i met a month go who had all your books. Chance meeting?? I dont think so! I jus have have a copy. Its screaming out for me to read it.

(Even if you've probably never heard of the University of the Free State in Bloemfontein, South Africa - You rock!)

[Dane]

prompt corrections for errors prompted is the correct thing to do for errors.
It's a true hallmark of academic humility and rigor.Bravo!

[MDS]

Doesn't The New Yorker have legendary fact checkers? How did they miss this?

[anno-nymous]

Uhhh... Mr. Math Corrections might want to check his math. 630 billion tire miles = 158 billion (630/4) vehicle miles so long as there are 4 tires on the vehicle at any given point. Whether you're using four tires or rotating out 3 million tires, this equality holds.

It's true that *each tire* gets 126 billion miles if you're rotating through five, but the vehicle gets more miles than any individual tire. The vehicle still gets 158.

[davin]

yo Anno. Mr. Math Corrections is using a 5 tire rotation, not 4.

I'm not super sure what kind of vehicle has 5 tires but apparently it's an SUV.

[Stephen Wood]

on August 09, 2006, anno-nymous (afrankel@uchicago.edu) was quite correct to ask me to recheck my math; it was wrong.

the 158B vehicle miles is correct only if all five tires are consumed (a five-tire rotation) [158B = 630B/4].

when the spare is unused, then only 4/5 of the avaible tread is used, so we have 126B vehicle miles [126B = (630B/4) * (4/5)].

thanks for the correction
[quis custodiet ipsos custodes]

[jerry glynn]

Please see makingsteel.com for more info on what happened at Sparrows Point plant of Bethlehem Steel when financier Wilbur Ross bought them out. Gladwell's version is lacking important info.

[Kerry Cassidy]

I am reading the Tipping Point now, I am almost finished with it. I loved it. I have bi polar disorder, I understand the principles of the book. I know because the several times I have gone to a physical support group, I was manic by the time I left. So my question is there a tipping point with right wing Christians? Will they change democracy as we know it, and can an epidemic be impeded? Sincerley, Kerry

[Robin Amadon]

Malcolm: I hope this reaches you--I heard your inspirational talk at the Seattle Plymouth luncheon on Tuesday and your interest next in probability, prediction and coincidence caught my attention. I'm sure you've found your way (as a social connector) to Persi Diaconis, a Statistician at Stanford, but you simply MUST contact him regarding this latest interest should you pursue it. PURSUE HIM. Perci is a friend of a friend of mine (does this sound FAMILIAR?!), Michael Perlman, who teaches at the University of Washington. Persi was a high school drop out who became a magician and later became an eminent scholar in his field. This is your guy if you move ahead with notions of prediction. And he's a larger than life character--charming, erudite, manic, and clever. I think there is gain for you ahead through contacting him. But then, likely you already have! He is spending the year in Paris with his french wife, also a stastisican named Susan Holmes, but I believe you can contact Persi through her e-mail address (she checks hers, he never does!) at Susan@stat.stanford.edu. Good luck and thank you for the gift of your time and mind on Tuesday, October 10th. Best regards, Robin Landy Amadon

[Doug Couch]

In the Q & A with Malcolm on this site, a comment was made about a decrease in violence in New York in the mid-90's. My comment is not in disagreement with the "tipping point" idea, but the "why" re NY violence. There "is" an apparent reason, but many people are yet unaware of it. In 1975, the Alternatives to Violence Project (AVP) was born inside a prison in New York state. The project became so effective and so popular with inmates inside the prison, that it spread out into the community and is still going strong in NY today. It has since spread across the USA to over 40 states, with some states having several groups. In California, the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation has invited AVP into its prisons, specifically because of its effectiveness with inmates "and" staff.

It has also spread to over 40 countries including those named so often in the news as violent hot spots, sometimes torn by civil war and genocide. Such notable places as Rwanda, Nigeria, Nicaragua, Kosovo, Croatia, Bosnia, Russia, and so on, in addition to European countries, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Hong Kong, Haiti, and some South American countries. In Rwanda, a man went to Uganda and sought assistance from AVP regarding restorative means of dealing with prisoners re genocide, resulting in major cool things there. AVP did many, many workshops there to train the gacaca judges and others, allowing reconciliations to take place, rather than only punishments in a country already so radically torn apart.

Little known, AVP is now in its 31st year and is at the cutting edge of restoration of both nonviolence and peace in the world, not to mention smiles where fear and hatred reigned. You can train and be part of this nonhierarchical organization of volunteers. Contact them through their USA web site, AVPUSA.ORG.